An asteroid first observed in late December 2024 is on track to pass by or collide with Earth in December 2032.

YR4 has a 2.2% chance of striking Earth in seven years, but recent updates keep pushing the odds in the wrong direction.

The chances of a large asteroid slamming into Earth in 2032 have gone up but it's still far too early for 2024 YR4 to be a major worry, astronomers say. The European Space Agency says there is now a 2% chance of the asteroid hitting on Dec.

No, or at least not because of the 2024 YR asteroid. First off, there is currently only about a one-in-43 chance that this rock hits Earth, and those odds will change (and probably go down) as scientists gather more data on the recently spotted asteroid. A nearly 98 percent chance it won’t hit us is pretty good.

YR4 has just above a 1% chance of crashing into Earth in 2032, which is why astronomers and space agencies are paying attention to it.

NASA and European scientists explain how they calculate the probability of the space rock 2024 YR4 impacting our planet, and why it’s not yet time to worry.

By comparison, the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs and 70% of all other animal species on Earth around 65 million years ago was roughly 6 to 9 miles wide. Other notable impact events include one in 1908,